The gamble of a Biden nomination, then, is a big one. It’s a bet on whether Americans really do want a return to the political establishment when signs here and around the world seem to be pointing in the opposite direction, empowering both far-right strong men and socialists as center-left and center-right parties stumble. Biden’s chances in a general election also hinge whether he can muster support from enough Obama-loyal, reliable primary voters to counteract a lack of enthusiasm among younger and more progressive segments of the electorate, who won’t back him with nearly the same vim as they would Elizabeth Warren or (especially) Bernie Sanders. Did the mythical white working class voters that Biden is supposed to appeal to really just want to vote for another white guy (as cynical pundits have claimed) or did they too want to drain the swamp?
Why are Democrats making an impeachment run now? The answer is simple. It’s the calendar. It’s about the 2020 elections. It’s a Hail Mary pass. The Democrats’ presidential field is weak. Joe Biden? Really? He’s a consummate DC insider crippled by corruption. Elizabeth Warren? A boldfaced liar? Bernie? Old, unhealthy, and a comic spendthrift. The rest of the field? Lightweights and Lilliputians.
If you were a Democrat powerbroker, how excited would you be for your party’s chances in 2020? Democrat insiders not only worry about winning the White House. But they must hold the U.S. House, where their party has only a slim majority. Democrats need to win the presidency, keep the House, and gain the Senate to “transform” America. They can’t get to socialize America any other way.
Donald Trump and congressional Republicans will run on some of the best economic news in 50 years. That’s the huge engine driving the president to reelection. Presidents get reelected when employment is up and businesses thrive. The economy will help the GOP pick up seats in the House – despite more Republican retirements. The GOP may hold its own in the Senate – even though 22 of 34 seats up for election are Republican.
Make no mistake, winning Congress hinges on the Democrats performance in the presidential contest. A poor run by their nominee damages down ballot candidates. Trump has to be mortally wounded to help Democrats in contests across the board.
Impeachment is the Democrats big gamble. Tarring Trump denies him the advantages of all the economic good news. They fear that Trump might just slice off more Hispanic and black voters. The juiced-up economy has benefited both minorities significantly. They also want to obscure Trump’s many other accomplishments.
Impeachment aims at satisfying Democrats’ rabid base voters. It’s a critical to pushing turnout among the base in 2020.
But impeachment is fraught with downsides. The Republican-controlled Senate will dispense with a trial quickly – in Trump’s favor. Independents and Republicans see the newest “impeach Trump” gambit as more political chicanery. Russia collusion has magically morphed into Ukrainian whatever. Voters aren’t dumb. They see this impeachment drive as part of an ongoing intrigue.
Will the Zelensky conversation fraud pay-off for Democrats? The smart money says no. It's a load of nothing that Democrats are trying to spin into something. It's a play on their Kavanaugh debacle.
In Donald Trump, Democrats have a nemesis with more wiles and street fighting skills than they possess. Trump relishes the fight, and gives more than he takes. At his back are millions of Americans who are Trump’s ardent grassroots supporters.
Impeachment is no rainbow with a pot of electoral gold at the end of it. Democrats will find out in 2020 – the hard way.
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