Elections 2020: Trump Leads Early in Pennsylvania?


We continue are weekend series looking at this year's election contests. Saturday, U.S. House and Senate races. Sunday, governorships.



Focus: President

Rep. Justin Amash: Michigan Rep. Justin Amash (L-Cascade Township/Grand Rapids) decided not to seek the Libertarian Party presidential nomination after filing an exploratory committee to assess his chances. Rep. Amash cited the COVID-19 precautions that make personal campaigning difficult as one reason not to continue along the presidential path. He says he is committed to helping build the national Libertarian Party, however.

Arizona: Regular Arizona pollster OH Predictive Insights (5/9-11; 600 AZ likely voters) finds former Vice President Joe Biden putting some distance between he and President Trump, 50-43%, in what is a must-win state for the Republican incumbent. The poll itself is not yet in the public domain, therefore making it difficult to analyze the nuances.

Hodas Polls: The Hodas & Associates survey research firm went into the field to test the swing Great Lakes/Mid-Atlantic states and produced surprisingly inconsistent data. Conducting surveys among sampling universes of 600 likely general election voters in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin in early May, Hodas finds the results very different than the three close wins Donald Trump recorded in these places four years ago. While former Vice President Joe Biden posts wide leads in Wisconsin (51-42%) and Michigan (50-42%), he surprisingly trails President Trump in Pennsylvania (46-50%).

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