Elections 2020: Senate and U.S. House Races to Watch

Tomorrow, Flyover drills down on key governors races. Join us every weekend to November for a finger-on-the pulse of critical elections!


Focus: Senate

Alabama: It appears not much has changed since soon after the March 3rd Alabama statewide primary. Retired Auburn University head football coach Tommy Tuberville finished ahead of former US Attorney General and Alabama Sen. Jeff Sessions in the Republican primary, and immediate post-election polling reported that Mr. Tuberville was opening a large lead. Despite the time lag, such still appears to be the case.

The Cygnal polling firm conducted their survey of 607 likely Republican runoff voters over the May 7-10 period and found Mr. Tuberville expanding his lead all the way to 55-32%. At this point, the longer runoff election period – originally the secondary vote was scheduled for March 31 but was moved all the way to July 14th – has not helped the former incumbent. The runoff winner faces Sen. Doug Jones (D) in November.

Arizona: The aforementioned OH Predictive Insights Arizona survey (see Arizona in the Presidential section above) finds appointed Sen. Martha McSally (R) dropping behind retired astronaut Mark Kelly (D) by a double-digit margin for the first time. The ballot test yields a 51-38% Kelly advantage. As what plagued her in the 2018 Senate race against Kyrsten Sinema (D), population dominant Maricopa County is performing well above the norm for a Democratic candidate.

Michigan: A pair of Michigan US Senate polls both find Sen. Gary Peters (D) leading his re-election campaign against challenger John James (R), but Hodas & Associates 5/1-5; 600 MI likely voters) and Change Research (5/11-17; 3,070 MI likely voters; online) see very different margins. Hodas gives Sen. Peters a big lead, 48-36%, a wider spread than other pollsters have found, and Change projects a five-point spread between the two men, 48-43%, also in the incumbent’s favor. The latter ballot test result is more consistent with other previously released data, however.

North Carolina: Coming off four consecutive April-May polls that found Sen. Thom Tillis (R) trailing Democratic nominee Cal Cunningham, East Carolina University just released their latest data (5/7-9; 1,111 NC registered voters) that sees the Senator rebounding to take a slight 41-40% advantage. The previous May poll from the Civiqs organization for the Daily Kos Elections website (5/2-4; 1,362 NC registered voters) projected Mr. Cunningham to a substantial 50-41% lead.



Focus: House

IA-4: The American Future Fund organization sponsored a poll of Iowa’s 4th District Republican primary and found challenger Randy Feenstra now eclipsing Rep. Steve King (R-Kiron) in their GOP nomination battle that will be settled on June 2nd. Mr. Feenstra, a state Senator and former chairman of the Senate Ways & Means Committee, has been steadily moving upward in polling for the past several weeks. Now, the AFF’s Public Opinion Strategies survey (5/16-18; 500 IA-4 likely Republican primary voters) sees Feenstra topping the incumbent, 41-39%. Additionally, Sen. Feenstra had a huge 16:1 cash-on-hand advantage over Rep. King at the close of the 2nd quarter financial reporting period.

NE-2: Rep. Don Bacon (R-Papillion/Omaha) just received two impressive Democratic insider endorsements in his re-match with progressive left Democratic nominee Kara Eastman. Bob Krist, the 2018 Democratic gubernatorial nominee, and former Nebraska Democratic Party executive director Barry Rubin both publicly endorsed Rep. Bacon this week. The 2018 contest saw Mr. Bacon defeating Ms. Eastman, 51-49%, and the 2020 version is also expected to be competitive.

Oregon: Former Vice President Joe Biden registered a rather uninspiring performance in the Oregon presidential primary last night, scoring a 67% win but against an entire field of candidates who long ago exited the race. All other Democratic incumbents running in the same type of low competition elections all recorded over 81% of the primary vote. Whether Mr. Biden’s performance suggests that he still has not convinced a large share of the Sanders-Warren coalition to support his candidacy remains to be seen.

The 2nd District with Rep. Greg Walden (R-Hood River) retiring from the lone Republican CD in the state, which encompasses the entire eastern Oregon sector, is open for the first time since 1998. Defeating 2018 GOP gubernatorial nominee Knute Buehler is former state Senator Cliff Bentz, who ran well to the former man’s right. The primary was a crowded affair with 11 candidates on the ballot. Mr. Bentz is now the prohibitive favorite to win here in November.

The only other even slightly competitive primary occurred in the Salem anchored 5th District where veteran incumbent Rep. Kurt Schrader (D-Canby) was re-nominated over local Mayor Mark Gamba with 70% of the vote. Rep. Schrader will now have an easy general election run.

SC-1: One of the bigger upset victories coming in 2018 election was Democrat Joe Cunningham (D-Charleston) converting the open Palmetto State 1st District after then-Representative and former Governor Mark Sanford lost re-nomination in the Republican primary. Now, the eastern South Carolina district becomes a top tier challenge race for the GOP.

If Mt. Pleasant Town Councilwoman Kathy Landing were the Republican nominee, she would lead Rep. Cunningham, 45-43%, according to First Tuesday Strategies (5/15-18; 500 SC-1 likely general election voters). Should state Rep. Nancy Mace (R-Daniel Island) win the party nomination, she would edge the Congressman by an almost identical 45-44% split.

TX-4: Texas Rep. John Ratcliffe (R-Heath/Rockwall) quickly resigned his seat in the House after the Senate confirmed him to become the country’s Director of Intelligence, meaning we have a new vacancy. Immediately after the resignation announcement, Gov. Greg Abbott (R) announced that he would not call a special election to fill the balance of the current term.

Republican Party of Texas chairman James Dickey said the 4th District Executive Committees will meet in convention on August 8th to choose a replacement nominee for the November ballot. Since Mr. Ratcliffe had already won re-nomination for this year’s general election, the Executive Committee is forced to act. Because the seat is safely Republican, whoever emerges from the Committee vote will become the new Representative next year.

WI-7: Tricia Zunker (D), the Wausau School Board member who lost a wide 57-43% to Rep-Elect Tom Tiffany (R-Minocqua) in the special election earlier this month, announced that she will file to run for the full term in the regular primary (August 11th) and general election.Candidate filing is fast approaching on June 1st.Considering the size of his May 12th victory, Rep-Elect Tiffany will be rated a heavy favorite to win the full term.



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