MSM Polls are Flawed - Many Deliberately
When you see news reports by the mainstream media crowing about polls showing Biden running away with the General Election, don't buy it. The MSM tried the same stunt in 2016, when Hillary was supposed to beat Trump in a cakewalk.
Predictions among conservatives that the president will beat Biden in a landslide are far too optimistic. Yes, President Trump typically under polls, but, in fact, predictions of a landslide for Trump appear to be overstated (Flyover will gladly eat it's words, if wrong). Expect another nailbiter. This presidential contest is bound to be close. Flyover is convinced that the president wins in an honest election.
Our concern is about the fraud that Democrats are already preparing for via mail-in ballots. Expect ballots for Biden to mount in the days, and even weeks, following Election Day. The Barrett confirmation to the U.S. Supreme Court is critical to reverse anticipated blue state chicanery.
For a solid analysis of the MSM's polling scam, read Brian C. Joondeph's article at American Thinker. It can be found here.
At Flyover, while we present select mainstream media polls, we do provide insight when we find flaws in methodology and sampling. And we point out contradictions among various polls in any given contest. Some polls get it wrong, but not because of intentional bias, but due to errors in their processes. We're seeking to get at the facts in the fog of political war.
Arizona: The Data Orbital research firm is the state’s most prolific pollster because they survey races from statewide contests all the way through local campaigns.According to this study (10/3-5; 550 AZ likely voters; live interview), former Vice President Joe Biden leads President Trump, 48-43%.The crosstabs reveal that Trump’s problem sectors are women, the state’s dominant county – Maricopa, which houses 61.6% of Arizona’s population – and the suburban 6th Congressional District, a former Republican CD that is clearly moving to the political center.
Alabama: The University of Auburn at Montgomery just released new numbers (9/30-10/3; 1,072 AL registered voters; online) and it confirms that former Auburn University head football coach Tommy Tuberville (R) holds a double-digit lead over Sen. Doug Jones (D). The UofA survey finds Mr. Tuberville’s advantage reaching 54-42%.
Georgia: Democratic pollster Hart Research Associates ran a series of polls around the country, and the firm included Georgia’s two Senate campaigns. Their data shows a bit of a swing from what we have been seeing in the recent past. Most of the recent polling has shown virtually a dead heat between Sen. David Perdue (R) and challenger Jon Ossoff (D), with most yielding a slight tilt toward the Democrat.
The Hart poll (9/24-27; 400 GA likely voters; live interview) finds Sen. Perdue leading the race by three percentage points, 49-46%. In the Senate special election, Hart projects a tie at 28% apiece between Democrat Raphael Warnock, the pastor of Atlanta’s Ebenezer Baptist Church where Martin Luther King, Jr. and his father once served, and appointed Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R). Trailing with 21% is Rep. Doug Collins (R-Gainesville). The other two Democrats, businessman Matt Lieberman and former US Attorney Ed Tarver, fail to reach 10% support.
If no one receives majority support on November 3rd, the top two finishers will advance to a January 5th runoff election. It appears that moving to a secondary election is a virtual certainty.
Maine: Sen. Susan Collins (R) appears headed back to an even footing according to a new survey that confirms others’ previous data. Critical Insights, a progressive left research firm (9/25-10/4; 466 ME “extremely likely” voters), finds Sen. Collins and state House Speaker Sara Gideon (D-Freeport) falling into a virtual dead heat, with the challenger holding only a 44-43% lead. In mid to late September, three individual pollsters posted Ms. Gideon to leads of 8, 7, and 4 percentage points. The high point for Gideon came earlier in September when Quinnipiac University detected a 12-point Democratic advantage.
Michigan: After a period where the Michigan Senate race had tightened to one-point in late September (Trafalgar Group; 9/26-28; 1,042 MI likely voters; Peters, 48-47%), two new surveys, one from the Glengariff Group (9/30-10/3; 600 MI likely voters) and the other from the Ipsos national polling firm (9/29-10/6; 709 MI likely voters; online), both show larger leads for the first-term Senator. Glengariff posts Sen. Peters to a 45-40% edge, while Ipsos finds a slightly larger seven-point spread, 50-43%.
Montana: Another example of polling conducted over relatively the same period but producing drastically different results just occurred in Montana. The Data for Progress organization polling for the Crooked Media and Indivisible political blog (9/30-10/5; 737 MT voters chosen from a web panel and SMS texting; weighted) finds Democratic Gov. Steve Bullock eclipsing Sen. Steve Daines (R), 48-47%. Within the same period, however, Emerson College, using a similar methodology (10/5-7; 500 MT likely voters; SMS texting; weighted) actually finds Sen. Daines recording his widest margin, a nine-point 52-43% spread.
North Carolina: In a pair of polls conducted largely before the Cunningham sexting scandal broke, national online pollster Ipsos and local East Carolina University released divergent North Carolina US Senate results. Ipsos (9/29-10/6; 601 NC likely voters; online) finds Democratic nominee Cal Cunningham leading first-term Sen. Thom Tillis (R), by five percentage points, 47-42%. This is consistent with the Public Policy Polling survey released earlier in the week that detected a six-point spread. Both of these show a tightening of the race, however, from the Hart Research Associates and ALG Research data that found 13 and 12 point respective leads in their late September surveys.
East Carolina (10/2-4; 1,232 NC likely voters; interactive voice response system and online), on the other hand, sees a further narrowing to the point of Tillis coming all the way back to take a one-point lead, 47-46%. Later in the week, Public Policy Polling then went into the field almost immediately after it was revealed that Mr. Cunningham had been “sexting” with a married woman. The PPP survey (10/4-5; 911 NC voters; interactive voice response system) finds Mr. Cunningham leading Sen. Thom Tillis (R), 48-42%.
Pennsylvania: Keystone State Sen. Pat Toomey (R) announced that he will not seek re-election in 2022, which isn’t a particular surprise since he indicated during the 2016 campaign that his second would likely be his final term. The latter part of his announcement, however, did catch people off guard because he was widely expected to run for Governor in the next cycle. Sen. Toomey included in his declaration a statement saying that he will not be on the ballot for any office in 2022. This means we will see a free-for-all among potential Republican statewide office seekers with the two top positions coming open. Gov. Tom Wolf (D) is ineligible to seek a third term.
Texas: Divergent results are being reported in another state, Texas. This time, three pollsters Public Opinion Research, the Civiqs organization for the Daily Kos Elections website, and Data for Progress were the pollsters. All were in the field during the September 30 through October 6 time span.
POR, for Crosswind Media & Public Relations (10/5-6; 1,000 TX likely voters; automated response device), finds Sen. John Cornyn (R) holding a nine-point advantage, 48-39%, over retired Army helicopter pilot M.J. Hegar (D). Civiqs, however (10/3-6; 895 TX likely voters; online) finds Cornyn’s ballot test lead at only one point, 47-46%. Data for Progress (9/30-10/5; 1,949 TX likely voters; web panel and SMS texting; weighted) gives the Senator a three-point edge, 45-42%, but this ballot test was accompanied with Democratic issue questions.
Fundraising: Last week, we reported that North Carolina Democratic Senate candidate Cal Cunningham may have set a record for fundraising in one quarter with over $28 million received. This week Colorado former Governor John Hickenlooper (D), who is challenging Sen. Cory Gardner (R), and Theresa Greenfield (D) who is opposing Iowa Sen. Joni Ernst (R) both exceeded $22 million for the period three-month period. Mr. Hickenlooper leads in polling and has a strong chance of unseating Sen. Gardner. The Ernst-Greenfield race is a toss-up.