Elections 2020: Critical Battle for President

This is the first in what will be a series of weekly updates on key 2020 campaigns. We are watching closely, as we hope you will, and welcome your comments and suggestions.



Focus: President

Jesse Ventura: Former Minnesota Governor and professional wrestler Jesse Ventura announced that he will not become a candidate for the Green Party presidential nomination. Mr. Ventura says doing so would force him to relinquish his employment and health insurance. The eventual Green Party nominee will qualify for most state ballots, as will the nominee of the Libertarian Party. Michigan Rep. Justin Amash (L-Cascade Township/Grand Rapids), the first official member of the Libertarian Party to hold a seat in Congress, is a candidate for his party’s presidential nomination.

No serious political observer believes anyone other than the nominee of the Democratic or Republican parties has a chance of winning the presidency. However, third-party candidates do have the potential to impact the election. Bill Clinton probably never would have been elected if it weren’t for Ross Perot. Third-parties matter.

In 2020, those who would normally be aligned with one of the two major parties might be tempted to do something else: not vote, vote for the nominee of the other party, or support a third-party. Who will lose or gain votes based on the identity of third-party candidates? It is a matter or some speculation, and in a close election the presidency can hang in the balance. Stay tuned.

CNN Poll: CNN conducted a nationwide political poll (5/7-10; 1,112 US adults; 1,001 registered voters; 302 over sample in 15 battleground states) and compared results to those found in 15 individual battleground states. The latter group included the swing states like Florida, North Carolina, Michigan, and Wisconsin. They added Colorado, New Mexico, and Virginia, places where former Vice President Joe Biden has developed significant leads. On the national count, as found in most other polls, Mr. Biden leads President Trump, 51-46%, but the numbers are virtually reversed, 52-45%, in Mr. Trump’s favor within the all-important battleground states.

Polling Trio: Three polls from key 2020 presidential states were released yesterday and yielded rather predictable results. In Wisconsin, Marquette Law School released their quarterly statewide survey (5/3-7; 811 WI registered voters) and found former Vice President Joe Biden edging President Trump, 46-43%. In Ohio, Emerson College (5/8-10; 725 OH registered voters) sees the President topping Mr. Biden, 51-49%, in a poll where all respondents were pushed to make a choice. In the Lone Star State of Texas, Emerson (5/8-10; 800 TX registered voters) gives the President a 52-48% advantage.


Tomorrow, Sunday, May 16, Flyover will focus on key U.S. Senate contests. Join us!

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